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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions915701001503835

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+5
Endgame+1
+3Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedBlue +8
3Coral scored#6
12Coral points20
1Processor algae#1
0Net algae#0
6Processor points6
0Net points0
6Algae points6
18Total teleop26
Reef
2L4#3
1L3#1
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#7
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +3
8Foul points4
38Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
26.46.2
24.017.8
Auto4.3
Teleop20.4
End1.7
red by 11.6
9214
#19
14.83.3
17.314.0
Auto3.9
Teleop9.6
End1.2
Second
346
#9
25.46.2
27.621.4
Auto6.3
Teleop17.6
End1.6
red by 10.7
14.76.3
20.914.5
Auto3.2
Teleop10.3
End1.3
Third
9709
#27
15.46.2
25.219.0
Auto2.5
Teleop10.9
End2.0
red by 10.1
2988
#33
5.33.3
17.514.2
Auto1.8
Teleop3.0
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
52%Auto oddsMissed36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
41%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsMissed