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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions603402040801009116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+47Teleop
+61Endgame
+75Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
6Leave6
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +44
8Coral scored#2
28Coral points8
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#0
12Processor points0
12Net points0
24Algae points0
52Total teleop8
Reef
4L4#1
2L3#1
2L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
14Game pieces#2
BargeRed +14
16Cage & park2
16Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +75
14Foul points0
91Total score16

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6802
#13
25.12.4
18.921.3
Auto3.1
Teleop16.6
End5.4
red by 10.3
3258
#20
14.81.8
10.48.6
Auto3.1
Teleop10.2
End1.5
Second
24.02.4
13.615.9
Auto3.6
Teleop18.7
End1.7
red by 9.3
14.71.8
12.510.7
Auto3.2
Teleop10.3
End1.3
Third
539
#21
16.02.4
17.319.6
Auto4.1
Teleop9.6
End2.2
red by 11.9
4286
#34
4.11.8
9.37.5
Auto1.6
Teleop1.1
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsMissed28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
47%Barge oddsEarned33%Barge oddsMissed