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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4262020801004540

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+5
Endgame+13
+5Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave9
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +2
3Coral scored#3
11Coral points11
0Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
0Processor points6
4Net points0
4Algae points6
15Total teleop17
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#0
4Game pieces#4
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
18Foul points0
45Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6802
#13
25.11.4
21.319.8
Auto3.1
Teleop16.6
End5.4
red by 3.0
3373
#10
22.11.7
24.322.6
Auto3.5
Teleop12.7
End5.9
Second
13.51.4
15.213.7
Auto4.0
Teleop7.7
End1.8
blue by 7.8
1262
#29
21.31.7
23.621.9
Auto4.2
Teleop15.6
End1.6
Third
3361
#25
5.91.4
3.52.1
Auto0.7
Teleop4.4
End0.8
red by 1.8
4286
#34
4.11.7
7.55.8
Auto1.6
Teleop1.1
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
24%Auto oddsMissed24%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
28%Barge oddsEarned42%Barge oddsEarned