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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2610405015049114

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+63
Endgame+65
Fouls+65
AutonomousBlue +3
6Leave9
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +60
6Coral scored#17
23Coral points61
2Processor algae#3
1Net algae#5
12Processor points18
4Net points20
16Algae points38
39Total teleop99
Reef
2L4#5
2L3#5
1L2#4
1L1 · trough#3
9Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +65
0Foul points0
49Total score114

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4472
#26
12.70.8
16.317.1
Auto2.2
Teleop8.5
End2.0
blue by 42.0
449
#3
54.71.7
47.949.6
Auto9.0
Teleop43.7
End2.1
Second
2988
#33
5.30.8
7.78.5
Auto1.8
Teleop3.0
End0.4
blue by 19.8
25.11.7
20.822.4
Auto2.5
Teleop20.4
End2.2
Third
4286
#34
4.10.8
5.86.6
Auto1.6
Teleop1.1
End1.4
blue by 15.3
1522
#28
19.41.8
18.119.9
Auto1.6
Teleop16.6
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
21%Auto oddsMissed78%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed30%Barge oddsMissed