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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions476002040801001201404420

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+8Teleop
+18Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
3Leave3
2Coral scored#0
9Coral points0
12Total auto3
TeleoperatedBlue +1
3Coral scored#3
12Coral points9
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#1
0Processor points0
0Net points4
0Algae points4
12Total teleop13
Reef
2L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#1
5Game pieces#4
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +24
6Foul points0
44Total score20

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1599
#14
21.60.1
21.421.3
Auto4.0
Teleop11.7
End5.9
red by 4.0
5724
#24
17.62.2
20.017.8
Auto3.5
Teleop12.1
End1.9
Second
13.50.1
13.613.5
Auto4.0
Teleop7.7
End1.8
blue by 2.4
539
#21
16.02.2
17.315.1
Auto4.1
Teleop9.6
End2.2
Third
4286
#34
4.10.1
4.24.1
Auto1.6
Teleop1.1
End1.4
blue by 2.8
617
#32
6.92.2
9.16.9
Auto-0.2
Teleop6.2
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
9%Auto oddsEarned42%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
32%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed