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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions90490204060801001201401608535

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+28Teleop
+38Endgame
+50Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
6Leave0
5Coral scored#2
24Coral points12
30Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +10
6Coral scored#4
21Coral points15
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#1
0Processor points0
8Net points4
8Algae points4
29Total teleop19
Reef
4L4#2
2L3#2
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#7
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +50
12Foul points0
85Total score35

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
401
#5
39.90.3
29.829.5
Auto12.7
Teleop26.0
End1.2
red by 14.2
2028
#16
25.71.4
22.120.7
Auto7.0
Teleop16.3
End2.5
Second
31.50.3
30.930.6
Auto7.8
Teleop18.0
End5.7
red by 10.3
4575
#11
21.21.4
21.520.1
Auto5.6
Teleop15.1
End0.5
Third
25.60.2
14.814.6
Auto6.0
Teleop17.2
End2.4
red by 13.2
4286
#13
12.40.8
4.13.2
Auto4.1
Teleop7.1
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsEarned21%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsEarned35%Barge oddsMissed