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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions65101204080120140160106135

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+3Teleop
Endgame+11
Fouls+29
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave9
4Coral scored#3
20Coral points17
23Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +6
14Coral scored#16
51Coral points59
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
12Processor points6
16Net points8
28Algae points14
79Total teleop73
Reef
5L4#9
6L3#3
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#4
24Game pieces#22
BargeBlue +14
2Cage & park16
2Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +29
2Foul points20
106Total score135

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
401
#5
39.92.9
38.241.0
Auto12.7
Teleop26.0
End1.2
red by 5.0
34.91.9
33.635.5
Auto4.3
Teleop27.8
End2.8
Second
3939
#24
20.42.9
18.121.0
Auto3.6
Teleop16.5
End0.3
blue by 11.1
31.51.9
30.632.6
Auto7.8
Teleop18.0
End5.7
Third
4286
#13
12.42.6
9.111.6
Auto4.1
Teleop7.1
End1.2
blue by 13.4
2028
#16
25.71.9
24.626.5
Auto7.0
Teleop16.3
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
59%Auto oddsEarned69%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
11%Barge oddsMissed55%Barge oddsEarned