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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions123705010015020013890

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+32Teleop
+42Endgame
+48Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave0
6Coral scored#5
30Coral points23
30Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +25
16Coral scored#11
56Coral points39
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#3
12Processor points12
20Net points12
32Algae points24
88Total teleop63
Reef
8L4#5
7L3#4
4L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#21
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +48
6Foul points0
138Total score90

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
422
#1
56.51.6
51.352.9
Auto10.9
Teleop37.1
End8.5
red by 10.9
346
#3
45.61.2
40.942.0
Auto12.1
Teleop32.9
End0.6
Second
35.11.4
31.633.0
Auto6.7
Teleop26.3
End2.1
red by 13.8
4575
#11
21.21.3
20.521.8
Auto5.6
Teleop15.1
End0.5
Third
977
#8
28.11.6
27.829.3
Auto4.0
Teleop22.4
End1.6
red by 16.5
2068
#27
11.61.3
11.412.7
Auto2.0
Teleop7.0
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned75%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
77%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsMissed