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Red134
242344.5
252326.7
6931.8
Blue106
107345.5
172947.7
549422.7
36%Model gave it64%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11112550100150200134106

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
Teleop+2
Endgame+2
+28Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
3Leave9
5Coral scored#1
27Coral points7
30Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +16
14Coral scored#13
50Coral points48
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#4
6Processor points12
4Net points16
10Algae points28
60Total teleop76
Reef
5L4#5
7L3#3
3L2#2
4L1 · trough#4
21Game pieces#20
Bargelevel
14Cage & park14
14Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +28
30Foul points0
134Total score106

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2423
#10
44.50.0
44.444.5
Auto14.0
Teleop26.1
End4.4
blue by 3.2
1729
#13
47.70.2
47.046.8
Auto10.6
Teleop32.5
End4.6
Second
69
#6
31.80.0
31.731.7
Auto6.5
Teleop21.9
End3.4
blue by 13.7
45.50.2
44.844.6
Auto10.7
Teleop26.8
End8.1
Third
2523
#19
26.70.0
26.626.7
Auto5.3
Teleop19.6
End1.8
red by 4.0
5494
#30
22.70.2
22.021.8
Auto4.6
Teleop15.7
End2.5