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Red116
491548.0
417319.9
189933.3
Blue28
418020.3
83037.0
378630.2
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10063020408012014016011628

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+72Teleop
+88Endgame
+88Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
9Leave6
4Coral scored#1
21Coral points7
30Total auto13
TeleoperatedRed +55
11Coral scored#3
38Coral points11
2Processor algae#0
5Net algae#1
12Processor points0
20Net points4
32Algae points4
70Total teleop15
Reef
8L4#1
2L3#2
2L2#0
3L1 · trough#1
22Game pieces#5
BargeRed +16
16Cage & park0
16Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +88
0Foul points0
116Total score28

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
48.01.9
38.140.0
Auto10.8
Teleop32.9
End4.3
red by 17.8
3786
#25
30.22.3
29.427.1
Auto5.5
Teleop23.1
End1.6
Second
1899
#18
33.31.9
28.029.9
Auto6.2
Teleop25.5
End1.6
red by 13.1
4180
#13
20.32.3
25.022.7
Auto5.7
Teleop10.9
End3.6
Third
4173
#26
19.91.9
22.023.9
Auto4.8
Teleop12.4
End2.7
red by 12.9
8303
#33
7.02.3
8.25.9
Auto1.9
Teleop5.0
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
84%Auto oddsEarned26%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
8%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
26%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed