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Red134
491548.0
824819.7
830230.5
Blue33
358813.5
304913.0
290712.2
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions963105015013433

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+75Teleop
+83Endgame
+101Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave0
3Coral scored#2
16Coral points9
19Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +65
16Coral scored#3
59Coral points12
1Processor algae#0
4Net algae#1
6Processor points0
16Net points4
22Algae points4
81Total teleop16
Reef
9L4#2
5L3#2
3L2#0
2L1 · trough#1
24Game pieces#6
BargeRed +8
16Cage & park8
16Total endgame8
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +101
18Foul points0
134Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
48.02.4
40.042.4
Auto10.8
Teleop32.9
End4.3
red by 34.5
3588
#36
13.50.2
14.013.8
Auto2.4
Teleop8.2
End2.9
Second
30.52.4
24.526.9
Auto6.1
Teleop19.3
End5.2
red by 17.5
3049
#35
13.00.2
8.58.3
Auto3.1
Teleop7.6
End2.3
Third
8248
#16
19.72.4
15.017.4
Auto4.5
Teleop11.8
End3.5
red by 7.5
2907
#27
12.20.3
13.613.2
Auto4.3
Teleop5.6
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned14%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
13%Coral oddsEarned8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
68%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed