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Red102
290712.2
48849.4
292817.7
Blue26
358813.5
457915.4
129419.1
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8647010015020010226

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+60Teleop
+58Endgame
+76Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
9Leave6
1Coral scored#0
4Coral points0
13Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +53
15Coral scored#4
53Coral points14
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
6Processor points0
8Net points0
14Algae points0
67Total teleop14
Reef
7L4#2
4L3#1
3L2#0
2L1 · trough#1
19Game pieces#4
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +76
18Foul points0
102Total score26

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
488
#17
49.40.5
45.646.1
Auto12.0
Teleop36.9
End0.5
red by 30.3
1294
#11
19.11.6
19.017.4
Auto6.2
Teleop10.0
End2.9
Second
2928
#30
17.70.5
14.314.7
Auto4.5
Teleop12.9
End0.3
red by 2.3
4579
#20
15.41.6
17.315.7
Auto4.1
Teleop11.1
End0.2
Third
2907
#27
12.20.8
16.817.7
Auto4.3
Teleop5.6
End2.3
blue by 1.3
3588
#36
13.51.6
13.011.5
Auto2.4
Teleop8.2
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsMissed7%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
25%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsMissed