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Red142
997326.2
593750.9
368137.7
Blue102
177863.2
292812.2
189916.8
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions97154050200250142102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+4
+30Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave6
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +7
18Coral scored#21
63Coral points76
2Processor algae#1
3Net algae#3
12Processor points6
12Net points12
24Algae points18
87Total teleop94
Reef
6L4#9
4L3#7
5L2#2
4L1 · trough#3
24Game pieces#25
BargeRed +34
36Cage & park2
36Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
10Foul points0
142Total score102

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5937
#12
50.91.6
54.055.6
Auto3.1
Teleop39.4
End8.5
blue by 12.3
1778
#19
63.22.2
84.582.3
Auto12.8
Teleop50.8
End-0.4
Second
3681
#13
37.71.6
38.239.8
Auto7.2
Teleop22.7
End7.8
red by 20.9
1899
#37
16.82.2
28.226.0
Auto4.6
Teleop12.0
End0.3
Third
9973
#14
26.22.6
10.813.4
Auto3.2
Teleop15.8
End6.9
red by 14.0
2928
#35
12.22.2
16.113.9
Auto0.5
Teleop11.3
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
28%Auto oddsMissed88%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
19%Coral oddsMissed70%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
81%Barge oddsEarned11%Barge oddsMissed