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Red154
413140.6
368137.7
307042.1
Blue136
36059.9
177863.2
762730.5
17%Model gave it83%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14019450100250300154136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+1
Teleop+8
+12Endgame
+18Fouls
AutonomousBlue +1
3Leave0
5Coral scored#6
26Coral points30
29Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +7
16Coral scored#19
59Coral points70
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#5
12Processor points12
24Net points20
36Algae points32
95Total teleop102
Reef
8L4#12
8L3#5
3L2#5
2L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#32
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +18
6Foul points0
154Total score136

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3070
#17
42.10.4
41.541.9
Auto8.1
Teleop31.4
End2.7
blue by 21.1
1778
#19
63.20.7
63.963.2
Auto12.8
Teleop50.8
End-0.4
Second
4131
#10
40.60.4
40.040.4
Auto6.4
Teleop26.6
End7.7
blue by 19.3
360
#3
59.90.7
60.659.9
Auto11.3
Teleop45.3
End3.4
Third
3681
#13
37.70.4
37.037.4
Auto7.2
Teleop22.7
End7.8
red by 7.1
7627
#29
30.50.7
31.230.5
Auto7.8
Teleop21.9
End0.9