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Red147
746125.2
451238.4
198324.0
Blue36
457917.3
94914.5
805119.7
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions694902040608010012014014736

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+65Teleop
+63Endgame
+111Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave6
4Coral scored#0
18Coral points0
27Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +44
13Coral scored#4
48Coral points14
2Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
12Processor points6
4Net points0
16Algae points6
64Total teleop20
Reef
6L4#1
6L3#1
4L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
20Game pieces#5
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +111
54Foul points6
147Total score36

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
38.42.0
22.023.9
Auto8.4
Teleop28.4
End1.6
red by 18.8
8051
#20
19.72.1
21.018.9
Auto5.4
Teleop11.6
End2.7
Second
25.22.0
17.819.8
Auto5.4
Teleop18.1
End1.6
red by 7.9
4579
#34
17.32.1
15.713.7
Auto1.6
Teleop14.7
End1.0
Third
1983
#31
24.02.0
23.725.7
Auto6.1
Teleop17.3
End0.6
red by 9.6
949
#25
14.51.2
11.810.6
Auto3.3
Teleop9.1
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsEarned35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
15%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed