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Red112
290623.7
446952.7
805119.7
Blue82
326817.6
1045524.4
297622.1
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1125905010015011282

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+8Teleop
+18Endgame
+30Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave3
3Coral scored#5
14Coral points23
23Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +11
14Coral scored#9
49Coral points34
1Processor algae#1
2Net algae#3
6Processor points6
8Net points12
14Algae points18
63Total teleop52
Reef
4L4#3
5L3#4
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#3
20Game pieces#18
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +30
12Foul points0
112Total score82

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
52.70.3
51.852.2
Auto13.5
Teleop37.1
End2.1
red by 28.3
24.41.4
21.422.8
Auto4.5
Teleop17.2
End2.8
Second
2906
#29
23.70.3
22.823.2
Auto4.6
Teleop18.0
End1.1
red by 1.5
2976
#23
22.11.4
22.123.5
Auto6.4
Teleop14.1
End1.6
Third
8051
#20
19.70.5
20.421.0
Auto5.4
Teleop11.6
End2.7
red by 2.1
3268
#33
17.61.4
17.418.8
Auto6.9
Teleop10.9
End-0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
75%Auto oddsEarned54%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsEarned12%Barge oddsMissed