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Red125
94914.5
177878.9
468236.3
Blue77
83039.2
252257.2
290623.7
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions145985020025012577

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+46Teleop
+48Endgame
+48Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave9
7Coral scored#0
34Coral points0
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +18
18Coral scored#14
64Coral points50
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
82Total teleop64
Reef
10L4#4
6L3#4
5L2#3
4L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#17
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +48
0Foul points0
125Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
78.90.5
78.678.1
Auto19.1
Teleop58.3
End1.4
red by 21.7
57.21.2
60.259.0
Auto17.2
Teleop38.2
End1.7
Second
36.30.5
38.538.0
Auto8.5
Teleop26.0
End1.7
red by 12.6
2906
#29
23.71.2
24.923.7
Auto4.6
Teleop18.0
End1.1
Third
949
#25
14.50.5
14.914.5
Auto3.3
Teleop9.1
End2.0
red by 5.3
8303
#32
9.21.4
10.59.2
Auto2.9
Teleop5.5
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned81%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
36%Coral oddsEarned39%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed9%Barge oddsMissed