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Red120
321917.4
824815.9
291087.2
Blue59
903639.5
56839.9
418011.2
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15845010020025012059

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+27Auto
+47Teleop
+61Endgame
+61Fouls
AutonomousRed +27
3Leave0
7Coral scored#2
33Coral points9
36Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +20
12Coral scored#10
42Coral points36
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
12Processor points6
16Net points8
28Algae points14
70Total teleop50
Reef
9L4#4
5L3#3
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#2
25Game pieces#15
BargeRed +14
14Cage & park0
14Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +61
0Foul points0
120Total score59

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
87.20.4
93.993.5
Auto22.8
Teleop56.1
End8.2
red by 47.7
39.50.1
37.537.6
Auto4.9
Teleop33.1
End1.6
Second
3219
#21
17.40.4
18.718.2
Auto5.3
Teleop8.4
End3.6
red by 6.2
4180
#27
11.20.1
15.315.4
Auto4.2
Teleop5.8
End1.1
Third
8248
#18
15.90.4
14.113.6
Auto4.5
Teleop9.4
End2.1
red by 6.0
5683
#22
9.90.1
4.64.7
Auto2.6
Teleop8.0
End-0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned46%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
59%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed