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Red122
902358.7
321917.4
903639.5
Blue105
805127.3
446948.5
491553.1
39%Model gave it61%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12413650100150200122105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
+15Teleop
+5Endgame
+17Fouls
AutonomousBlue +11
0Leave3
4Coral scored#5
19Coral points27
19Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +26
16Coral scored#13
59Coral points47
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
12Processor points6
16Net points8
28Algae points14
87Total teleop61
Reef
9L4#8
6L3#3
3L2#4
2L1 · trough#3
26Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +17
12Foul points0
122Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
58.70.2
58.157.9
Auto15.2
Teleop41.8
End1.7
red by 5.6
53.11.2
49.748.4
Auto15.8
Teleop30.0
End7.3
Second
39.50.2
36.135.9
Auto4.9
Teleop33.1
End1.6
blue by 9.0
4469
#13
48.51.2
49.047.8
Auto12.8
Teleop34.6
End1.1
Third
3219
#21
17.40.2
18.918.7
Auto5.3
Teleop8.4
End3.6
blue by 10.0
8051
#10
27.31.2
24.623.4
Auto7.9
Teleop14.8
End4.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
28%Coral oddsMissed23%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
64%Barge oddsEarned48%Barge oddsEarned