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Red143
446948.5
357429.8
204651.4
Blue116
469231.7
94917.8
378625.4
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14768050100200250300143116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+33Teleop
+31Endgame
+27Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave0
7Coral scored#3
34Coral points16
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +12
21Coral scored#13
76Coral points48
2Processor algae#4
4Net algae#5
12Processor points24
16Net points20
28Algae points44
104Total teleop92
Reef
11L4#5
8L3#6
6L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#25
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +27
0Foul points4
143Total score116

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.40.4
48.649.0
Auto14.2
Teleop35.2
End1.9
red by 19.7
4692
#20
31.70.8
30.831.7
Auto6.8
Teleop24.3
End0.5
Second
4469
#13
48.50.4
45.846.2
Auto12.8
Teleop34.6
End1.1
red by 23.2
3786
#19
25.40.8
24.525.4
Auto5.6
Teleop18.0
End1.7
Third
3574
#15
29.80.4
27.027.4
Auto3.6
Teleop22.3
End3.9
red by 12.0
949
#11
17.80.8
17.017.8
Auto2.3
Teleop14.2
End1.3