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Red209
291087.2
418011.2
241261.8
Blue149
36054.3
746110.0
902358.7
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19113250100150250300350209149

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+16
+4Endgame
+60Fouls
AutonomousBlue +10
3Leave0
8Coral scored#10
38Coral points51
41Total auto51
TeleoperatedBlue +6
16Coral scored#16
58Coral points56
1Processor algae#3
4Net algae#3
6Processor points18
16Net points12
22Algae points30
80Total teleop86
Reef
10L4#10
7L3#7
5L2#6
2L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#32
BargeRed +20
24Cage & park4
24Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +60
64Foul points8
209Total score149

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
87.20.5
88.688.1
Auto22.8
Teleop56.1
End8.2
red by 28.5
58.70.3
58.458.7
Auto15.2
Teleop41.8
End1.7
Second
61.80.5
63.362.8
Auto13.1
Teleop38.0
End10.8
red by 7.6
360
#17
54.30.3
54.054.3
Auto16.1
Teleop35.5
End2.7
Third
4180
#27
11.20.5
11.711.2
Auto4.2
Teleop5.8
End1.1
red by 1.1
7461
#14
10.00.3
9.710.0
Auto4.5
Teleop5.2
End0.3