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Red178
491553.1
558813.2
451256.4
Blue136
446948.5
357429.8
204651.4
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions118139050100200250300350178136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+28Teleop
+36Endgame
+42Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave9
9Coral scored#4
47Coral points21
47Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +11
20Coral scored#21
71Coral points76
2Processor algae#2
7Net algae#3
12Processor points12
28Net points12
40Algae points24
111Total teleop100
Reef
15L4#8
6L3#9
4L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#30
BargeRed +8
12Cage & park4
12Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +42
8Foul points2
178Total score136

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.41.2
52.954.1
Auto18.1
Teleop37.4
End0.9
red by 5.0
51.40.2
48.448.6
Auto14.2
Teleop35.2
End1.9
Second
53.11.2
49.750.8
Auto15.8
Teleop30.0
End7.3
red by 4.6
4469
#13
48.50.2
45.645.8
Auto12.8
Teleop34.6
End1.1
Third
5588
#24
13.21.2
9.710.9
Auto6.7
Teleop6.3
End0.2
blue by 16.6
3574
#15
29.80.2
26.927.0
Auto3.6
Teleop22.3
End3.9