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Red103
291087.2
418011.2
241261.8
Blue126
252240.7
56839.9
903639.5
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions19983050100150250300103126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+5
Teleop+29
Endgame+25
Fouls+23
AutonomousBlue +5
6Leave6
3Coral scored#4
14Coral points19
20Total auto25
TeleoperatedBlue +24
15Coral scored#20
53Coral points73
1Processor algae#3
4Net algae#2
6Processor points18
16Net points8
22Algae points26
75Total teleop99
Reef
7L4#10
5L3#8
4L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#29
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Penalties & totalBlue +23
2Foul points0
103Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
87.21.6
90.388.6
Auto22.8
Teleop56.1
End8.2
red by 46.5
2522
#12
40.70.7
39.840.6
Auto12.0
Teleop23.8
End4.9
Second
61.81.6
64.963.3
Auto13.1
Teleop38.0
End10.8
red by 22.3
39.50.7
38.639.4
Auto4.9
Teleop33.1
End1.6
Third
4180
#27
11.21.6
13.411.7
Auto4.2
Teleop5.8
End1.1
red by 1.3
5683
#22
9.90.7
9.09.8
Auto2.6
Teleop8.0
End-0.7