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Red199
291087.2
418011.2
241261.8
Blue94
469231.7
94917.8
378625.4
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions20354010015025030035019994

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+38Auto
+83Teleop
+105Endgame
+105Fouls
AutonomousRed +38
6Leave9
10Coral scored#1
48Coral points7
54Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +45
26Coral scored#14
95Coral points50
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
12Processor points12
12Net points12
24Algae points24
119Total teleop74
Reef
11L4#4
11L3#5
7L2#3
7L1 · trough#3
41Game pieces#20
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +105
0Foul points0
199Total score94

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
87.20.6
89.790.3
Auto22.8
Teleop56.1
End8.2
red by 55.5
4692
#20
31.70.5
29.129.6
Auto6.8
Teleop24.3
End0.5
Second
61.80.6
64.464.9
Auto13.1
Teleop38.0
End10.8
red by 36.5
3786
#19
25.40.5
22.823.3
Auto5.6
Teleop18.0
End1.7
Third
4180
#27
11.20.6
12.813.4
Auto4.2
Teleop5.8
End1.1
blue by 6.6
949
#11
17.80.5
15.315.7
Auto2.3
Teleop14.2
End1.3