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Red44
607616.5
746119.2
417317.6
Blue100
1007929.1
413121.7
445023.3
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions617120408010012044100

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
Teleop+42
Endgame+54
Fouls+56
AutonomousBlue +7
3Leave9
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points7
9Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +35
5Coral scored#11
17Coral points40
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#4
6Processor points6
4Net points16
10Algae points22
27Total teleop62
Reef
3L4#4
1L3#3
1L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
8Game pieces#17
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +56
4Foul points6
44Total score100

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7461
#21
19.22.0
19.417.4
Auto6.0
Teleop12.2
End1.0
blue by 9.9
29.12.8
22.124.9
Auto6.0
Teleop22.3
End0.8
Second
4173
#27
17.61.9
17.215.3
Auto3.9
Teleop12.2
End1.5
blue by 5.7
4450
#13
23.32.6
20.923.4
Auto5.4
Teleop13.0
End4.9
Third
6076
#20
16.52.0
18.416.4
Auto2.5
Teleop12.5
End1.5
blue by 5.2
4131
#11
21.72.6
17.019.6
Auto2.7
Teleop16.3
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
57%Auto oddsMissed77%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed41%Barge oddsEarned