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Red250
999849.5
999427.6
241274.4
Blue193
999320.5
363655.3
142550.2
66%Model gave it34%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14313080100120160180200220240250193

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
+45Teleop
+57Endgame
+57Fouls
AutonomousBlue +21
3Leave0
3Coral scored#7
13Coral points37
16Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +66
35Coral scored#25
126Coral points90
5Processor algae#2
13Net algae#10
30Processor points12
52Net points40
82Algae points52
208Total teleop142
Reef
17L4#9
6L3#8
9L2#8
6L1 · trough#7
56Game pieces#44
BargeRed +12
26Cage & park14
26Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +57
0Foul points0
250Total score193

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
74.41.8
72.774.4
Auto13.0
Teleop51.6
End9.8
red by 19.1
3636
#13
55.31.0
54.355.3
Auto12.7
Teleop42.5
End0.0
Second
49.52.7
46.849.5
Auto11.6
Teleop35.6
End2.4
blue by 0.7
50.21.0
49.250.2
Auto13.8
Teleop28.2
End8.2
Third
9994
#17
27.62.7
24.927.6
Auto2.4
Teleop20.9
End4.4
red by 7.1
9993
#12
20.51.5
18.920.5
Auto4.0
Teleop13.7
End2.9