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Red95
99979.0
299029.6
669643.7
Blue207
546876.2
363655.3
999849.5
10%Model gave it90%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6915605010020025030095207

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+32
Teleop+100
Endgame+112
Fouls+112
AutonomousBlue +32
3Leave3
4Coral scored#10
20Coral points52
23Total auto55
TeleoperatedBlue +68
13Coral scored#28
46Coral points100
1Processor algae#2
4Net algae#6
6Processor points12
16Net points24
22Algae points36
68Total teleop136
Reef
9L4#9
3L3#16
2L2#5
3L1 · trough#8
22Game pieces#46
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +112
0Foul points0
95Total score207

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.71.5
34.536.1
Auto9.1
Teleop34.9
End-0.3
blue by 32.5
5468
#3Sur
76.24.3
68.973.2
Auto18.8
Teleop45.2
End12.2
Second
2990
#22
29.61.5
24.626.1
Auto6.4
Teleop19.7
End3.4
blue by 25.7
3636
#13
55.34.3
54.158.4
Auto12.7
Teleop42.5
End0.0
Third
9997
#24
9.02.6
12.715.3
Auto-0.3
Teleop6.5
End2.9
blue by 40.5
49.57.2
19.226.4
Auto11.6
Teleop35.6
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
11%Barge oddsMissed65%Barge oddsEarned