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Red137
252125.9
999320.5
154034.6
Blue102
634336.6
99953.5
945073.2
16%Model gave it84%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions88168050150200250300137102

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+4
Teleop+5
+5Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousBlue +4
3Leave0
3Coral scored#5
16Coral points23
19Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +1
13Coral scored#12
46Coral points43
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
12Processor points12
16Net points20
28Algae points32
74Total teleop75
Reef
7L4#6
4L3#5
2L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
22Game pieces#24
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
30Foul points0
137Total score102

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1540
#14
34.60.8
41.841.0
Auto4.2
Teleop24.7
End5.7
blue by 38.5
73.23.3
71.868.5
Auto12.7
Teleop50.8
End9.8
Second
25.90.8
30.830.0
Auto9.9
Teleop12.7
End3.3
blue by 10.7
6343
#20
36.63.3
47.043.7
Auto7.6
Teleop26.2
End2.7
Third
9993
#12
20.51.3
22.721.4
Auto4.0
Teleop13.7
End2.9
red by 17.0
9995
#25
3.55.5
10.85.3
Auto-0.8
Teleop2.8
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned91%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed45%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
30%Barge oddsEarned81%Barge oddsMissed