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Red169
371211.9
762741.8
945065.6
Blue115
469226.8
131853.4
382623.8
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1351216080100160180200169115

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+28Teleop
+36Endgame
+54Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
3Leave0
5Coral scored#5
27Coral points26
30Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +24
18Coral scored#18
63Coral points63
4Processor algae#2
5Net algae#2
24Processor points12
20Net points8
44Algae points20
107Total teleop83
Reef
9L4#7
7L3#7
5L2#5
2L1 · trough#4
32Game pieces#27
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +54
18Foul points0
169Total score115

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.61.5
64.666.1
Auto17.7
Teleop38.0
End9.8
red by 12.2
53.40.2
48.848.6
Auto12.2
Teleop36.3
End5.0
Second
41.81.5
38.239.7
Auto11.2
Teleop27.7
End2.9
red by 15.0
4692
#30
26.80.2
24.023.8
Auto2.6
Teleop22.6
End1.5
Third
3712
#32
11.91.5
12.814.3
Auto2.0
Teleop8.8
End1.0
blue by 11.9
3826
#21
23.80.2
30.430.2
Auto4.8
Teleop14.6
End4.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned85%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
21%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
80%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsMissed