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Red139
131853.4
381216.5
546859.2
Blue66
607616.7
406020.4
498027.8
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions144715010020013966

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+71Teleop
+81Endgame
+73Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave3
6Coral scored#3
30Coral points16
30Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +60
18Coral scored#7
65Coral points25
1Processor algae#1
6Net algae#1
6Processor points6
24Net points4
30Algae points10
95Total teleop35
Reef
10L4#4
6L3#3
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
31Game pieces#12
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +73
0Foul points8
139Total score66

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
59.21.0
58.059.0
Auto15.3
Teleop35.0
End8.9
red by 31.4
4980
#22
27.81.0
29.228.3
Auto4.7
Teleop18.9
End4.3
Second
53.41.0
48.649.7
Auto12.2
Teleop36.3
End5.0
red by 33.0
4060
#24
20.41.0
25.224.3
Auto5.6
Teleop11.7
End3.1
Third
3812
#27
16.51.0
16.918.0
Auto3.1
Teleop11.2
End2.2
blue by 0.3
6076
#26
16.71.0
18.117.1
Auto4.6
Teleop11.6
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned47%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsEarned2%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned66%Barge oddsMissed