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Red130
49233.9
961318.4
1041631.7
Blue64
159519.3
382623.8
498027.8
56%Model gave it44%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1009640608012014013064

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
+68Teleop
+60Endgame
+66Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
3Leave0
3Coral scored#1
13Coral points6
16Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +58
16Coral scored#7
58Coral points26
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#1
12Processor points6
24Net points4
36Algae points10
94Total teleop36
Reef
5L4#2
7L3#2
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#1
27Game pieces#10
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +66
14Foul points8
130Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
492
#25
33.91.6
31.433.0
Auto5.7
Teleop27.4
End0.8
red by 6.0
4980
#22
27.82.5
29.527.0
Auto4.7
Teleop18.9
End4.3
Second
31.71.6
29.330.9
Auto5.2
Teleop23.6
End2.9
red by 7.9
3826
#21
23.82.5
26.123.5
Auto4.8
Teleop14.6
End4.5
Third
9613
#29
18.41.6
16.918.4
Auto4.2
Teleop12.2
End2.1
blue by 0.8
1595
#33
19.32.8
20.317.5
Auto5.6
Teleop12.2
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsEarned71%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
9%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsEarned50%Barge oddsEarned