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Red66
856717.1
490926.0
287734.0
Blue33
47617.5
50910.8
111918.0
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions109790501502006633

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+33Teleop
+33Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave0
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
6Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +27
8Coral scored#4
30Coral points15
3Processor algae#1
2Net algae#2
18Processor points6
8Net points8
26Algae points14
56Total teleop29
Reef
3L4#1
3L3#1
1L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
14Game pieces#7
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
0Foul points0
66Total score33

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.04.3
33.429.1
Auto6.3
Teleop22.4
End5.3
red by 15.9
1119
#13
18.05.7
25.920.3
Auto3.1
Teleop13.9
End1.0
Second
26.04.3
33.729.4
Auto5.5
Teleop18.6
End1.9
red by 15.2
509
#18
10.85.7
25.920.2
Auto1.1
Teleop7.0
End2.6
Third
17.14.3
25.621.3
Auto2.4
Teleop13.3
End1.3
red by 9.6
4761
#27
7.55.7
20.314.6
Auto1.8
Teleop4.5
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
63%Auto oddsMissed49%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
49%Barge oddsMissed38%Barge oddsMissed