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Red42
176827.4
208412.2
105821.0
Blue9
542220.4
23812.9
970.3
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10778050150200429

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+29Teleop
+33Endgame
+33Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
6Leave0
0Coral scored#0
1Coral points0
7Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +22
5Coral scored#3
17Coral points9
1Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
6Processor points0
8Net points0
14Algae points0
31Total teleop9
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#1
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#3
BargeRed +4
4Cage & park0
4Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +33
0Foul points0
42Total score9

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27.45.5
36.531.1
Auto4.4
Teleop20.2
End2.8
red by 6.9
5422
#21
20.46.8
26.519.7
Auto4.7
Teleop13.6
End2.2
Second
21.05.5
31.626.2
Auto3.1
Teleop16.9
End1.0
red by 8.1
238
#23
12.96.8
27.420.6
Auto2.5
Teleop9.4
End1.0
Third
2084
#20
12.25.5
23.017.5
Auto1.3
Teleop10.4
End0.6
red by 11.9
97
#31
0.36.8
16.69.8
Auto0.3
Teleop-0.3
End0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsMissed48%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
48%Barge oddsMissed38%Barge oddsMissed