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Red77
957653.0
999013.7
93038.8
Blue72
999418.4
179240.8
99969.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions138690501001502007772

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
Teleop+7
+5Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
6Leave9
3Coral scored#1
16Coral points4
22Total auto13
TeleoperatedBlue +16
8Coral scored#11
29Coral points41
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
6Processor points6
4Net points8
10Algae points14
39Total teleop55
Reef
3L4#5
4L3#3
3L2#3
1L1 · trough#1
13Game pieces#15
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
0Foul points0
77Total score72

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.03.0
62.959.9
Auto8.4
Teleop36.6
End8.0
red by 12.3
40.80.2
41.040.8
Auto8.7
Teleop28.5
End3.5
Second
930
#4
38.83.0
40.737.7
Auto10.0
Teleop21.1
End7.6
red by 20.4
18.40.3
14.314.0
Auto3.0
Teleop13.4
End2.0
Third
9990
#10
13.75.0
13.18.1
Auto5.7
Teleop6.3
End1.8
red by 3.9
9996
#11
9.90.3
13.212.9
Auto3.6
Teleop5.6
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
87%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed18%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
69%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsMissed