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Red90
369220.9
702145.9
501914.5
Blue85
591429.1
297713.3
252638.3
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103810501502009085

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
Teleop+3
+9Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
9Leave0
3Coral scored#2
14Coral points12
23Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +14
11Coral scored#14
41Coral points51
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
6Processor points6
4Net points8
10Algae points14
51Total teleop65
Reef
5L4#6
4L3#4
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#3
16Game pieces#19
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
0Foul points4
90Total score85

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.90.4
42.643.0
Auto11.2
Teleop25.5
End9.2
red by 7.6
2526
#18
38.30.8
36.837.6
Auto5.3
Teleop31.5
End1.5
Second
3692
#22
20.90.7
23.223.8
Auto4.1
Teleop14.8
End1.9
blue by 8.2
5914
#14
29.11.3
21.823.2
Auto6.8
Teleop18.3
End4.0
Third
5019
#31
14.50.7
18.118.7
Auto3.5
Teleop7.6
End3.3
red by 1.2
2977
#46
13.30.8
10.211.1
Auto1.4
Teleop10.6
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
49%Auto oddsEarned20%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
82%Barge oddsEarned20%Barge oddsMissed