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Red140
514816.4
253128.7
222528.3
Blue120
283036.4
590338.0
402112.7
4%Model gave it96%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions561120100150140120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+4Teleop
+14Endgame
+20Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave9
2Coral scored#0
12Coral points0
12Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +1
22Coral scored#21
78Coral points77
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#4
12Processor points12
16Net points16
28Algae points28
106Total teleop105
Reef
9L4#8
8L3#4
4L2#5
3L1 · trough#4
30Game pieces#27
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +20
6Foul points0
140Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2531
#16
28.73.3
20.023.2
Auto4.9
Teleop22.1
End1.6
blue by 9.3
5903
#23
38.00.2
40.940.7
Auto7.7
Teleop24.3
End5.9
Second
2225
#17
28.35.4
18.624.0
Auto4.8
Teleop16.4
End7.1
blue by 8.0
2830
#33
36.40.4
34.033.7
Auto5.3
Teleop30.8
End0.3
Third
5148
#38
16.45.4
13.719.1
Auto3.3
Teleop9.1
End4.0
red by 3.7
4021
#48
12.70.4
14.614.3
Auto3.6
Teleop7.9
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsEarned65%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
43%Barge oddsEarned32%Barge oddsMissed