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Red106
761915.7
353876.8
1050529.7
Blue40
17165.7
710321.7
338114.1
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1342105010015020010640

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+58Teleop
+66Endgame
+66Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
9Leave9
6Coral scored#1
28Coral points7
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +37
13Coral scored#3
45Coral points12
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#0
6Processor points6
4Net points0
10Algae points6
55Total teleop18
Reef
8L4#2
5L3#1
4L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
21Game pieces#5
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +66
0Foul points0
106Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
76.80.2
69.669.4
Auto17.9
Teleop56.8
End2.0
red by 55.1
7103
#13
21.70.4
23.924.2
Auto6.3
Teleop14.2
End1.2
Second
29.70.2
24.324.1
Auto5.8
Teleop22.8
End1.1
red by 15.6
3381
#10
14.10.4
10.611.0
Auto4.8
Teleop8.8
End0.5
Third
7619
#14
15.70.2
14.814.7
Auto2.3
Teleop8.7
End4.7
red by 10.0
1716
#16
5.70.4
-0.00.4
Auto1.2
Teleop3.4
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
85%Auto oddsEarned47%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
19%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
54%Barge oddsEarned17%Barge oddsMissed