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Red80
361828.7
282633.1
1050529.7
Blue158
558626.8
283040.4
353876.8
4%Model gave it96%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6814705010020025080158

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+74
Endgame+82
Fouls+78
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave0
3Coral scored#6
16Coral points30
16Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +60
12Coral scored#22
42Coral points80
1Processor algae#2
1Net algae#5
6Processor points12
4Net points20
10Algae points32
52Total teleop112
Reef
6L4#9
4L3#6
2L2#7
3L1 · trough#6
17Game pieces#35
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +78
6Foul points2
80Total score158

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.10.2
29.128.9
Auto5.7
Teleop24.5
End2.9
blue by 43.7
76.81.8
70.372.1
Auto17.9
Teleop56.8
End2.0
Second
29.70.2
24.824.6
Auto5.8
Teleop22.8
End1.1
blue by 10.7
40.41.8
37.138.9
Auto8.8
Teleop24.1
End7.4
Third
28.70.2
23.022.8
Auto6.3
Teleop21.3
End1.1
red by 1.9
5586
#11
26.81.8
21.523.4
Auto2.9
Teleop22.5
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsEarned48%Barge oddsEarned