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Red49
338114.1
710321.7
360212.1
Blue59
558626.8
99936.8
761915.7
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions53520204060801004959

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+2Teleop
Endgame+10
Fouls+10
AutonomousRed +4
9Leave6
0Coral scored#0
1Coral points0
10Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +2
7Coral scored#8
25Coral points27
1Processor algae#1
1Net algae#1
6Processor points6
4Net points4
10Algae points10
35Total teleop37
Reef
3L4#3
2L3#3
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
9Game pieces#10
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Penalties & totalBlue +10
0Foul points0
49Total score59

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7103
#13
21.70.0
21.621.7
Auto6.3
Teleop14.2
End1.2
blue by 5.2
5586
#11
26.80.2
26.626.8
Auto2.9
Teleop22.5
End1.5
Second
3381
#10
14.10.0
14.114.1
Auto4.8
Teleop8.8
End0.5
blue by 1.6
7619
#14
15.70.2
15.515.7
Auto2.3
Teleop8.7
End4.7
Third
3602
#15
12.10.0
12.112.1
Auto3.8
Teleop7.4
End1.0
red by 5.4
6.80.2
6.56.8
Auto2.1
Teleop3.4
End1.3