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Red180
509620.9
173265.8
874458.4
Blue136
171454.8
319756.9
122024.6
67%Model gave it33%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15714480100120180200220180136

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+30Teleop
+40Endgame
+44Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave3
7Coral scored#5
34Coral points23
37Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +19
18Coral scored#18
63Coral points64
3Processor algae#3
9Net algae#4
18Processor points18
36Net points16
54Algae points34
117Total teleop98
Reef
10L4#10
9L3#6
4L2#5
2L1 · trough#2
37Game pieces#30
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Penalties & totalRed +44
12Foul points8
180Total score136

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
65.80.5
66.667.1
Auto18.5
Teleop38.9
End8.4
red by 8.9
56.90.2
57.657.4
Auto12.3
Teleop40.0
End4.6
Second
58.40.5
59.259.6
Auto13.1
Teleop44.0
End1.3
red by 3.6
54.80.2
55.555.3
Auto8.2
Teleop40.4
End6.1
Third
5096
#13
20.90.5
21.722.1
Auto4.8
Teleop13.6
End2.4
blue by 3.7
1220
#14
24.60.2
24.824.6
Auto6.4
Teleop14.5
End3.6