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Red54
999913.3
453128.4
217120.0
Blue90
509620.9
870129.1
93042.0
10%Model gave it90%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions291050501502005490

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+26
Endgame+34
Fouls+36
Autonomouslevel
6Leave6
2Coral scored#2
10Coral points10
16Total auto16
TeleoperatedBlue +26
5Coral scored#9
18Coral points34
1Processor algae#2
2Net algae#3
6Processor points12
8Net points12
14Algae points24
32Total teleop58
Reef
3L4#4
2L3#3
1L2#2
1L1 · trough#2
10Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +8
6Cage & park14
6Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +36
0Foul points2
54Total score90

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4531
#17
28.40.5
21.622.1
Auto4.9
Teleop17.0
End6.4
blue by 13.6
930
#16
42.00.0
41.741.7
Auto9.3
Teleop27.9
End4.7
Second
2171
#24
20.00.5
16.216.7
Auto3.6
Teleop15.1
End1.3
blue by 9.1
8701
#21
29.10.0
30.930.9
Auto5.4
Teleop22.3
End1.3
Third
9999
#23
13.30.8
8.69.5
Auto3.7
Teleop7.9
End1.9
blue by 7.6
5096
#13
20.90.0
15.115.1
Auto4.8
Teleop13.6
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
76%Auto oddsEarned68%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
2%Coral oddsMissed7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
20%Barge oddsMissed31%Barge oddsEarned