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Red163
171454.8
167537.9
220230.4
Blue148
453128.4
999711.1
125953.6
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14275050100200250163148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+4Auto
+25Teleop
+17Endgame
+15Fouls
AutonomousRed +4
0Leave0
5Coral scored#4
23Coral points19
23Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +21
26Coral scored#19
92Coral points69
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#4
12Processor points18
20Net points16
32Algae points34
124Total teleop103
Reef
11L4#6
8L3#6
8L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
38Game pieces#30
BargeBlue +8
16Cage & park24
16Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +15
0Foul points2
163Total score148

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
54.82.1
51.653.7
Auto8.2
Teleop40.4
End6.1
red by 1.2
53.63.8
49.152.9
Auto10.5
Teleop33.7
End9.4
Second
37.92.1
35.938.0
Auto3.8
Teleop26.5
End7.6
red by 9.5
4531
#17
28.43.8
22.125.9
Auto4.9
Teleop17.0
End6.4
Third
2202
#11
30.42.1
32.434.6
Auto6.3
Teleop21.1
End3.0
red by 19.3
9997
#26
11.16.0
6.212.1
Auto1.2
Teleop10.4
End-0.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
73%Auto oddsEarned47%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
18%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
86%Barge oddsEarned53%Barge oddsEarned