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Red192
283036.5
173275.5
478656.9
Blue123
179251.0
270433.8
162560.8
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions182153100200250192123

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+79Teleop
+69Endgame
+69Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
0Leave6
10Coral scored#5
51Coral points27
51Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +61
21Coral scored#14
75Coral points50
4Processor algae#2
8Net algae#2
24Processor points12
32Net points8
56Algae points20
131Total teleop70
Reef
12L4#7
8L3#3
5L2#5
6L1 · trough#4
43Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +10
4Cage & park14
4Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +69
6Foul points6
192Total score123

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
75.50.4
75.175.5
Auto18.8
Teleop46.1
End10.6
red by 14.7
60.80.7
61.560.8
Auto12.3
Teleop40.4
End8.1
Second
56.90.4
56.556.9
Auto17.8
Teleop34.9
End4.3
red by 5.9
1792
#16
51.00.7
51.751.0
Auto10.9
Teleop34.3
End5.8
Third
2830
#24
36.50.4
36.136.5
Auto5.9
Teleop27.5
End3.2
red by 2.8
2704
#29
33.80.7
34.433.8
Auto7.6
Teleop25.7
End0.5