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Red173
219443.6
853131.8
874446.3
Blue110
664324.5
976015.8
790017.7
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions12572050100150200173110

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+65Teleop
+67Endgame
+63Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave0
3Coral scored#2
17Coral points9
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +51
27Coral scored#21
98Coral points75
3Processor algae#1
8Net algae#4
18Processor points6
32Net points16
50Algae points22
148Total teleop97
Reef
8L4#11
12L3#4
4L2#4
6L1 · trough#4
41Game pieces#28
BargeRed +2
2Cage & park0
2Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +63
0Foul points4
173Total score110

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8744
#11
46.33.0
39.542.4
Auto9.1
Teleop32.6
End4.6
red by 21.8
6643
#38
24.50.5
22.723.1
Auto4.9
Teleop19.2
End0.4
Second
2194
#22
43.63.0
34.737.6
Auto11.7
Teleop29.6
End2.3
red by 25.9
7900
#45
17.70.5
21.722.2
Auto5.1
Teleop9.9
End2.7
Third
8531
#31
31.83.0
26.629.5
Auto5.0
Teleop24.9
End2.0
red by 16.1
9760
#42
15.80.8
18.619.4
Auto4.6
Teleop10.3
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
68%Auto oddsEarned74%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
27%Barge oddsMissed42%Barge oddsMissed