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Red106
1052219.5
465569.3
664324.5
Blue65
802918.8
790017.7
270433.8
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions123865010015020010665

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+39Teleop
+41Endgame
+41Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave6
5Coral scored#2
24Coral points10
27Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +28
13Coral scored#10
45Coral points37
2Processor algae#0
4Net algae#2
12Processor points0
16Net points8
28Algae points8
73Total teleop45
Reef
6L4#5
5L3#3
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#1
24Game pieces#14
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +41
0Foul points0
106Total score65

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4655
#15
69.30.2
61.461.6
Auto17.4
Teleop44.3
End7.7
red by 35.6
2704
#29
33.80.7
29.228.5
Auto7.6
Teleop25.7
End0.5
Second
6643
#38
24.50.2
22.322.5
Auto4.9
Teleop19.2
End0.4
red by 5.8
8029
#43
18.80.7
24.023.3
Auto4.2
Teleop13.4
End1.2
Third
19.50.3
19.820.1
Auto4.3
Teleop13.0
End2.2
red by 1.9
7900
#45
17.70.7
22.521.8
Auto5.1
Teleop9.9
End2.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
74%Auto oddsMissed66%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
15%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
65%Barge oddsMissed33%Barge oddsMissed