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Red114
70626.5
167535.1
853131.8
Blue127
622356.4
282641.2
809620.4
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10812450150200114127

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+15
Endgame+13
Fouls+13
AutonomousBlue +14
9Leave0
0Coral scored#5
0Coral points23
9Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +1
17Coral scored#15
61Coral points54
2Processor algae#4
4Net algae#3
12Processor points24
16Net points12
28Algae points36
89Total teleop90
Reef
5L4#7
4L3#6
5L2#4
3L1 · trough#3
23Game pieces#27
BargeRed +2
16Cage & park14
16Total endgame14
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +13
0Foul points0
114Total score127

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1675
#35
35.11.1
33.234.3
Auto3.1
Teleop25.3
End6.7
blue by 21.4
6223
#13
56.41.2
52.053.2
Auto10.0
Teleop38.5
End7.9
Second
8531
#31
31.81.1
28.529.5
Auto5.0
Teleop24.9
End2.0
blue by 9.3
41.21.2
30.531.7
Auto7.7
Teleop28.0
End5.4
Third
706
#18
26.51.1
21.522.6
Auto6.7
Teleop15.6
End4.2
red by 6.1
8096
#39
20.41.2
17.819.0
Auto4.7
Teleop14.0
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
45%Auto oddsMissed80%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed9%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
20%Barge oddsEarned62%Barge oddsEarned