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Red191
173275.5
880231.9
130651.1
Blue132
878214.4
179251.0
942530.7
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1689250150200250191132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+71Teleop
+59Endgame
+59Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
3Leave9
7Coral scored#0
34Coral points0
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +43
33Coral scored#23
120Coral points83
3Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
18Processor points12
12Net points12
30Algae points24
150Total teleop107
Reef
15L4#10
8L3#7
8L2#3
9L1 · trough#3
46Game pieces#28
BargeBlue +12
4Cage & park16
4Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +59
0Foul points0
191Total score132

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
75.51.9
65.767.6
Auto18.8
Teleop46.1
End10.6
red by 24.5
1792
#16
51.01.6
47.549.1
Auto10.9
Teleop34.3
End5.8
Second
1306
#10
51.11.9
43.945.9
Auto10.7
Teleop36.1
End4.3
red by 20.4
9425
#33
30.72.7
18.120.8
Auto6.8
Teleop20.4
End3.5
Third
8802
#28
31.93.2
27.630.9
Auto7.7
Teleop23.4
End0.8
red by 17.5
8782
#41
14.42.7
16.619.3
Auto2.4
Teleop9.1
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned60%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
26%Coral oddsEarned10%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsMissed50%Barge oddsEarned