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Red128
623741.3
9345.6
878214.4
Blue105
270433.8
853131.8
207724.5
78%Model gave it22%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13610750150200128105

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+21Teleop
+23Endgame
+23Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave6
3Coral scored#3
13Coral points13
16Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +24
22Coral scored#14
78Coral points50
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
12Processor points12
16Net points20
28Algae points32
106Total teleop82
Reef
11L4#8
7L3#4
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
31Game pieces#24
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +23
0Foul points0
128Total score105

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
93
#5
45.60.2
43.043.1
Auto8.3
Teleop30.9
End6.3
red by 11.8
2704
#29
33.80.3
28.528.2
Auto7.6
Teleop25.7
End0.5
Second
6237
#17
41.30.2
38.538.7
Auto5.8
Teleop29.4
End6.2
red by 9.5
8531
#31
31.80.3
29.529.3
Auto5.0
Teleop24.9
End2.0
Third
8782
#41
14.40.3
19.319.6
Auto2.4
Teleop9.1
End2.9
blue by 10.1
2077
#46
24.50.3
25.525.2
Auto4.7
Teleop16.5
End3.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsEarned53%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
24%Coral oddsMissed8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
77%Barge oddsMissed26%Barge oddsMissed