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Red144
373428.1
853131.8
173275.5
Blue139
1043016.1
884728.6
791546.7
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1759150150200250144139

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+24Auto
+21Teleop
+11Endgame
+5Fouls
AutonomousRed +24
6Leave0
5Coral scored#2
27Coral points9
33Total auto9
TeleoperatedBlue +3
19Coral scored#18
67Coral points66
2Processor algae#2
4Net algae#5
12Processor points12
16Net points20
28Algae points32
95Total teleop98
Reef
9L4#7
6L3#8
4L2#2
5L1 · trough#3
30Game pieces#27
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +5
0Foul points6
144Total score139

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
75.50.5
72.672.1
Auto18.8
Teleop46.1
End10.6
red by 28.8
7915
#23
46.73.4
40.443.8
Auto7.1
Teleop32.0
End7.6
Second
8531
#31
31.80.5
32.331.8
Auto5.0
Teleop24.9
End2.0
red by 3.2
8847
#40
28.63.4
25.228.6
Auto1.9
Teleop20.0
End6.7
Third
3734
#19
28.10.6
28.728.1
Auto5.0
Teleop21.7
End1.4
red by 12.1
16.13.4
12.716.1
Auto2.1
Teleop12.3
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
77%Auto oddsEarned35%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
20%Coral oddsEarned3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
60%Barge oddsEarned54%Barge oddsEarned