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Red176
657454.9
250650.1
219443.6
Blue172
93047.1
204044.6
130651.1
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions153147100120140160180200220176172

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+16Teleop
+4Endgame
+4Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
0Leave6
7Coral scored#7
33Coral points34
33Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +23
29Coral scored#23
105Coral points82
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#3
12Processor points12
12Net points12
24Algae points24
129Total teleop106
Reef
16L4#11
7L3#8
9L2#6
4L1 · trough#5
41Game pieces#35
BargeBlue +12
14Cage & park26
14Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +4
0Foul points0
176Total score172

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6574
#21
54.90.7
52.953.6
Auto9.2
Teleop36.7
End8.9
red by 3.7
1306
#10
51.10.7
50.451.1
Auto10.7
Teleop36.1
End4.3
Second
50.10.7
48.148.8
Auto6.7
Teleop34.8
End8.7
red by 3.0
930
#20
47.10.7
46.447.1
Auto11.5
Teleop30.9
End4.6
Third
2194
#22
43.60.7
41.642.3
Auto11.7
Teleop29.6
End2.3
blue by 1.0
44.60.7
43.944.6
Auto9.5
Teleop28.8
End6.3